The new Elway poll came out today. I want to share with you some of the encouraging numbers within it.
In the Governor’s race, Rob is up 2 points among likely voters, 47-45%, with 8% undecided and a 5%+/- margin of error. This is a shift back toward Rob and there is more good news I believe when we examine the internals. The voter sample is 36%D, 32%R and 32%I, which I believe is a bit more D than the electorate. To quote from the poll “ McKenna supporters seem somewhat more comfortable with their candidate than do Inslee supporters.” 30% of Inslee voters cited him being a D was the primary reason they supported him, whereas 18% of Rob’s supporters cited him being a Republican.
Now, let me quote two other lines from the poll: “ Blue Tide Ebbing – Voters Look Toward Republicans” and “Republicans Gain As Voters Shift Away From Democrats”. Women identifying as Republicans went up 11% and those identifying as Democrats went down 13%, in what Elway called a “ remarkable shift, OUTDOING ( emphasis mine ) a similar shift seen in national surveys.”. And, in five statewide races ( AG, Sec of State, Auditor, Lt Gov and Gov ), Elway notes a “net shift of 10 points toward the Republicans” in the last month. Then Elway notes, in perhaps the most important sentence in the poll, that the late deciders, those who haven’t voted yet, will determine the outcome of these races.
Re-read the above two paragraphs, then pause and think about what it means. It means momentum is on our side. It means the campaigns and the phone banks and the door-to-door efforts are working. What you are doing is getting results. And we have to keep that momentum going for just 13 more days. We need to accelerate our efforts. We need to call more, walk more, give more. You can be assured that the Democrats can read polls too and they will intensify their efforts if they think they are losing their grasp, after 30 years, on state government. We can’t assume it’s won and relax, not for a single moment. Now is the time to pick up the pace and do more. The magnitude of our efforts must meet or exceed the magnitude of what is at stake on November 6.
One last thought, from a history geek. Last Sunday, October 21, was the 207th anniversary of the battle of Trafalgar. Admiral Horatio Nelson and the British Navy under his command destroyed a combined French-Spanish fleet on that day that threatened an invasion of Britain. This victory assured that no such invasion would occur and virtually guaranteed the ultimate defeat of Napoleon. Admiral Nelson was killed during the battle. Before sailing into battle that morning, Nelson signaled the fleet with this message: “England expects that every man will do his duty.”. Let me paraphrase for today and the next 13 days: America, and its’ future generations, expects that each of you will do your duty.
13 days til liberation.